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GENERAL FINDINGS

Overall, Greece was not hit by the pandemic, as brutally as the other countries of the Western World. Geographical characteristics and government policies are the main factors explaining this differentiation. During the first wave of the pandemic (February to April 2020), Greece demonstrated a remarkable performance, as result of the prompt governmental response, while the second wave that developed from September 2020 onwards proved to be much more severe, due to limited restrictions, accompanied by colder weather which facilitated the spread.

Up to the end of August, the COVID-19 pandemic concequences seemed under control with only 262 deaths recorded. September and October showed the first signs that the worst was yet to come with 358 deaths recorded. Consequently, November’s infection spread had already started to expand with a positivity rate of about 11% and 1701 deaths recorded which is 73% of the total deaths to date. The attempt contain the pandemic is reflected by the increasing number of tests performed, reaching 57k Τests per 1M population in November.

MonthTotal Cases% Cases by MonthTotal Deaths% Deaths by Month% Mortality by Month% Mortality (Rolling)Cases per 1MDeaths per 1MTests per 1M% Positivity
Feb40,0%00,0%0,0%
Mar1.2081,2%431,9%3,6%3,5%113416057,0%
Apr1.3641,3%964,1%7,0%5,4%12795.6072,3%
May3390,3%361,6%10,6%6,0%32310.1070,3%
Jun4750,5%160,7%3,4%5,6%44112.6890,3%
Jul1.0111,0%120,5%1,2%4,6%94119.8710,5%
Aug5.7335,5%592,5%1,0%2,6%535641.2041,3%
Sep7.9897,7%1265,4%1,6%2,1%7451234.3652,2%
Oct19.07318,3%23210,0%1,2%1,7%1.7782245.0703,9%
Nov67.03164,3%1.70173,3%2,5%2,2%6.25015957.20510,9%
Total104.2272.3212,2%9.718216227.7234,3%

The evolution of the infection severity is best demonstrated in the graphs that follow below:

Cases per 15 Days

Cases per 15 Days

Deaths per 15 Days

Deaths per 15 Days

Cases reach their peak with ~35000 infections in the middle of November, while deaths have not reached their peak yet, with 1286 deaths within the last two weeks of November.

At the end of November, the country reached the 11th position of Deaths per 1M population globally, within a single week.

Ranking of Greece - Death per Million by Week

deaths per million greece

During November, new cases and deaths reached 3316 and 121 respectively within a day.

Hospital admissions to ICU units as expected, follows the deaths trend, with 93 patients being in ICUs in early April, while the situation in the last days of November was so bad, that intubated patients reached 608.

Deaths and ICU patients

Deaths and ICU patients titleDeaths and ICU patients

Based on models’ estimations for Greece, we have reached a conclusion that cases reported are about 21% of the total infections considering both asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases. Accordingly, the estimated actual mortality (IFR) is about 0.5% (4 times lower than mortality calculated on diagnosed cases). Hospital and ICU admissions on the reported cases, are about 7% and 3% accordingly.

Reported vs Estimated Cases

Reported vs Estimated Cases titleReported vs Estimated Cases

Estimated Real Cases & Mortality

Estimated Real Cases and Mortality

Hospitalizations & ICU incidents

Hospitalizations and ICU incidents