As already mentioned during the summer months following the first wave of the pandemic, most European countries demonstrated a significant decrease in both COVID-19 diagnosed cases and deaths.

The diagram below clearly presents this situation as most of the European countries fall in the quarter where cases per million and deaths per million are very low. On the other hand, we note that there is a group of countries that do not follow this pattern, mainly Balkan countries, which seem to enter the second wave towards the end of the summer.

Cases per 1M vs Deaths per 1M (Jun-Aug)

KosovoNorth MacedoniaMoldovaMontenegroBosnia and HerzegovinaRomaniaSwedenAlbaniaRussiaBulgariaSerbiaUnited KingdomBelgiumBelarusSpainUkrainePortugalItalyFranceIrelandPolandLuxembourgCroatiaNetherlandsCzechiaGermanySloveniaHungaryDenmarkGreeceSwitzerlandAustriaMaltaLithuaniaNorwayLatviaCyprusFinlandGeorgiaSlovakiaEstoniaLiechtensteinIceland-50050100150200250300010002000300040005000600070008000Deaths per 1M pop (Jun - Aug) Cases per 1M pop (Jun - Aug)

It is evident that the level of temperature influences the pandemic, as higher temperatures during the summer months decreased the number of incidents of COVID-19 and therefore almost minimized Death per Million indices.

Temperature vs Deaths per 1M


We also note that in both waves (first and second wave) the Deaths per Million index increases from 15 degrees Celsius onwards. There was a small increase in deaths during summer’ 21 due to Delta mutation.

Having said that, the mobility indexes graph we saw in previous section highlights the increased mobility in the parks during summer months, which may provide an additional explanation for the decrease in Deaths per Million during the summer period.