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General Findings

COVID-19 PANDEMIC has hit Europe much more than other geographical regions of the world, having almost 30% of diagnosed cases and deaths. We can also see that there is a significant difference between Western and Eastern Europe, with Western Europe having almost 20% of cases and deaths.

AreaTotal CasesCases %Total DeathsDeaths %Mortality %Cases per 1MDeaths per 1M
Western Europe29.261.10117,3%641.98418,2%2,2%68.7261508
Eastern Europe18.524.90910,9%434.32812,3%2,3%54.4141.276
Total Europe47.786.01028,2%1.076.31230.5%2.3%63.4841.429
North America34.290.57520,2%609.18517,3%1,8%93.5541.662
Latin America and the Caribbean33.065.99219,5%1.037.82129,5%3,1%51.1011.604
Asia-Pacific36.459.14421,5%482.01813,7%1,3%8.589114
Middle East and North Africa14.409.2078,5%231.6336,6%1,6%26.833431
Sub-Saharan Africa3.379.5932,0%86.6332,5%2,6%3.04378
Global169.390.521 3.523.602 2,1%22.078459

Europe - Deaths per 1M MA7

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The first wave of the pandemic (Feb-May 2020) was quite difficult, with a stable and controllable summer period, followed by a much more aggressive second wave, especially from October 2020 onwards. The second wave reached its peak during January 2021, when a decline started, but before reaching the highest level of the first wave towards the end of February, a third wave started to develop, somehow milder than the second one. It is interesting to examine the differentiation by region of the general pandemic trend. The graph below, of Deaths per Million of Population, demonstrates the outlined differences.

Deaths per 1M

deaths depth europe

Western European countries, together with Sweden, faced a much more severe first wave, compared to other European regions. While in the second wave, ex-Eastern block countries of Central Europe, the Balkans and Greece together with the Western European countries, were hit badly by the pandemic. On the other hand, the Baltic and the rest of Scandinavian countries had a much milder hit during both waves. Finally, the Central European countries and the Balkans contributed mostly during the third wave.

Phases by Regions

Europe - Regions# CountriesTotal Cases per 1MTotal Deaths per 1M% Mortality
Western Europe1770.3281.5762,2%
Ex East Block (Central Europe)489.1762.2742,6%
Balkans1169.3651.7202,5%
Greece137.4501.1233,0%
Baltic552.9261.0362,0%
Scandinavian329.8142520,8%
Sweden1104.0051.3941,3%
Europe - RegionsCases per 1M(Feb'20 - May'20)Cases per 1M(Jun'20 - Aug'20)Cases per 1M(Sep'20 - Nov'20)Cases per 1M(Dec'20 - Feb'21)Cases per 1M(Mar'21 - May'21)
Western Europe3.2611.61721.61626.09317.818
Ex East Block (Central Europe)59898527.04328.46232.088
Balkans9593.56320.41822.92421.501
Greece2726738.7748.01319.718
Baltic1.1682.15112.61917.67719.312
Scandinavian1.6145076.21011.8459.639
Sweden3.7534.48115.53239.07539.753
Europe - RegionsDeaths per 1M(Feb'20 - May'20)Deaths per 1M(Jun'20 - Aug'20)Deaths per 1M(Sep'20 - Nov'20)Deaths per 1M(Dec'20 - Feb'21)Deaths per 1M(Mar'21 - May'21)
Western Europe39832255655232
Ex East Block (Central Europe)3018434859939
Balkans46107366585617
Greece168192385521
Baltic1839181329468
Scandinavian6762012832
Sweden45211486556140
Europe - Regions% Mortality(Feb'20 - May'20)% Mortality(Jun'20 - Aug'20)% Mortality(Sep'20 - Nov'20)% Mortality(Dec'20 - Feb'21)% Mortality(Mar'21 - May'21)
Western Europe12,2%2,0%1,2%2,5%1,3%
Ex East Block (Central Europe)5,1%1,9%1,6%3,0%2,9%
Balkans4,8%3,0%1,8%2,6%2,9%
Greece6,0%1,2%2,2%4,8%2,6%
Baltic1,6%1,8%1,4%1,9%2,4%
Scandinavian4,2%1,2%0,3%1,1%0,3%
Sweden12,1%2,6%0,6%1,4%0,4%

Ranking - Cases & Deaths per 1M (Feb-May 2021)

A/ACountryCases 1M
1Montenegro158.598
2Czechia154.579
3Slovenia120.910
4Luxembourg114.357
5Sweden104.005
6Serbia102.258
7Lithuania97.482
8Estonia97.228
9Netherlands95.305
10Belgium92.343
11France88.609
12Croatia86.783
13Cyprus82.989
14Hungary82.375
15Portugal81.909
16Switzerland80.104
17Spain79.042
18Liechtenstein77.831
19Poland72.285
20Monaco75.139
21North Macedonia74.640
22Austria72.341
23Slovakia70.344
24Italy69.748
25Latvia68.549
26United Kingdom66.590
27Moldova63.009
28Malta62.069
29Bosnia and Herzegovina61.577
30Bulgaria59.651
31Kosovo59.393
32Romania55.427
33Ireland53.045
34Ukraine50.513
35Denmark48.182
36Albania46.349
37Germany44.037
38Belarus41.601
39Greece37.450
40Russia34.421
41Norway23.171
42Iceland18.420
43Iceland18.420
A/ACountryDeaths 1M
1Hungary3.040
2Czechia2.820
3Bosnia and Herzegovina2.792
4North Macedonia2.602
5Montenegro2.544
6Bulgaria2.518
7Slovakia2.251
8Belgium2.157
9Italy2.082
10Croatia1.951
11Poland1.928
12United Kingdom1.907
13Slovenia1.800
14Portugal1.653
15France1.625
16Spain1.604
17Romania1.554
18Moldova1.510
19Liechtenstein448
20Sweden1.394
21Lithuania1.393
22Luxembourg1.332
23Kosovo1.242
24Latvia1.232
25Austria1.169
26Ukraine1.166
27Switzerland1.166
28Greece1.123
29Germany1.058
30Netherlands1.016
31Ireland1.006
32Serbia979
33Estonia943
34Monaco937
35Albania861
36Malta841
37Russia823
38Denmark427
39Cyprus411
40Belarus301
41Finland171
42Norway147
42Iceland84

GDP per Capita vs COVID-19 Test Policy

GDP per Capita vs Deaths per 1M

The above graph demonstrates a positive correlation between GDP and COVID-19 testing policy. There are though some exceptions to this rule, with Malta, Chechia and the United Kingdom performing significantly higher number of tests given their GDP, while Switzerland, Norway and Ireland did exactly the opposite.

GDP per Capita vs Deaths per 1M

GDP per Capita vs Deaths per 1M

With respect to GDP per Capita, we note that there is a group of countries who perform well as far as Deaths per Million is concerned independent of the level of GDP per Capita. (Some Balkan countries, some ex-eastern block countries, Greece, Cyprus, Germany, Austria, Finland, Switzerland, Ireland, Iceland and Norway). While there is another group of countries of low and medium GDP per Capita who demonstrate much higher Death per Million index with outstanding the central European countries and some Balkan countries (Hungary, Poland,Chechia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia etc). It looks like the GDP per Capita is not a primary factor in the evolution of the pandemic in Europe. There is a negative Correlation between GDP and Deaths per 1M.(Pearson = -0.4)